Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Paris (France), hard (indoor) - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 October 2024, Monday


	Fabio Fognini		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.35	1.57
	2.6	1.51	Watch
	2.48	1.58
	2.42	1.59	Watch
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.56	Watch
	2.6	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.85)	1.55 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fabio Fognini
38.4%

Alexander Bublik
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

67%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fabio Fognini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fabio Fognini's performance.

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexander Bublik might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fabio Fognini than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fabio Fognini that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexander Bublik could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	6.7%	53.3%

Fabio Fognini - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Fognini will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Bublik will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fognini is ranked ATP: 77. Bublik is ranked ATP: 32.

Recent matches Fognini is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bublik is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bublik could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bublik will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fognini won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fabio Fognini
ATP Paris
27.10.24	Arthur Cazaux - Fabio Fognini	1:2 ✺
26.10.24	Fabio Fognini - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
ATP Basel
19.10.24	Henry Bernet - Fabio Fognini	2:0 ✺
ATP Almaty
15.10.24	Otto Virtanen - Fabio Fognini	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.10.24	Fabio Fognini - Chun Hsin Tseng	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLLL
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Basel
22.10.24	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Alexander Bublik	Bublik A. retired ✺
ATP Shanghai
07.10.24	Roman Safiullin - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
26.09.24	Alexander Bublik - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
22.09.24	Juncheng Shang - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
21.09.24	Federico Agustin Gomez - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 ?LLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Metz
08.11.23	Alexander Bublik - Fabio Fognini	1:2

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