Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Francis Tiafoe		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.30
	1.63	2.22
	1.7	2.34
	1.62	2.35	Watch
	1.64	2.3
	1.57	2.44	Watch
	1.65	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.61)	2.31 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
58.6%

Alex Michelsen
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.4%	0%	27.6%

Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). Michelsen will win (votes: 8 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Tiafoe (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Michelsen (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 Sets - over (2.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Frances Tiafoe (1.67) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Michelsen (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 46.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Tiafoe could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.45%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Alex Michelsen - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.55%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP US Open
06.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
02.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
23.08.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP US Open
06.09.26	Alex Michelsen - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Alex Michelsen - Daniel Merida Aguilar	3:0 ✺
02.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alex Michelsen	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Houston
04.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Dallas
08.02.24	Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen	2:0

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