Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag (Croatia), clay - Final

Date: 27 July 2024, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Umag (Croatia) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	04:00	beIN Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:00	Premier Sport 3
Finland	21:00	MTV Katsomo
Germany	20:00	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	21:00	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hungary	20:00	Match 4
Netherlands	20:00	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	20:00	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	19:00	Sport TV3
Romania	21:00	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3
Sweden	20:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis


	Francisco Cerundolo		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.55
	2.39	1.56	Watch
	2.52	1.58
	2.39	1.63	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.43	1.57	Watch
	2.42	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.18)	1.58 (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
39.5%

Lorenzo Musetti
60.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42%

58%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	0%	72.2%

Francisco Cerundolo - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Cerundolo will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Musetti will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Right away both players are in a satisfying form.

Cerundolo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Musetti will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Musetti to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Cerundolo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Umag
26.07.24	Andrey Rublev - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
25.07.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
24.07.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
ATP Hamburg
19.07.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
17.07.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Maximilian Marterer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Umag
26.07.24	Jakub Mensik - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
25.07.24	Dusan Lajovic - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
24.07.24	Marco Trungelliti - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
12.07.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
10.07.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hamburg
23.07.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0
ATP Challenger
03.09.20	Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0

Francisco Cerundolo - Lorenzo Musetti