Match Info
CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shenzhen 4, hard - 1/16-finalsDate: 13 October 2025, Monday
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Henrique Rocha |
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Luca Castelnuovo |
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- The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Henrique Rocha
67.7% | Luca Castelnuovo
32.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Henrique Rocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Henrique Rocha's performance.Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castelnuovo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Henrique Rocha that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+5.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Castelnuovo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Henrique Rocha - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Rocha will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Castelnuovo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rocha (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -3.5 Games - Rocha (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rocha (votes: 3 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Preview
Rocha is ranked ATP: 161. Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 407.Rocha has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).Castelnuovo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Rocha may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Rocha could have a small edge in this match. In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
Last Results with these Odds
Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 60.15%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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