Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hangzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hangzhou 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Sho Shimabukuro		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.02	1.77	Watch
	2.08	1.75	Watch
	2.1	1.74
	2.04	1.77	Watch
	2	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.07)	1.76 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sho Shimabukuro
46.3%

Hugo Gaston
53.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.3%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Sho Shimabukuro - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Shimabukuro will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Gaston will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaston: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaston (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 93., and Gaston is ranked ATP: 97..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Gaston could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Shimabukuro has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 54.7%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sho Shimabukuro
Davis Cup World Group I
19.09.26	Anton Shepp - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	James Watt - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Arthur Rinderknech	1:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Miomir Kecmanovic	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WWLLL
- Hugo Gaston
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Hugo Gaston	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Guido Ivan Justo	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
28.08.23	Sho Shimabukuro - Hugo Gaston	0:3

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