Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Rei Sakamoto		Rafael Jodar

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.95	1.4	Watch
	2.98	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.06	1.39	Watch
	3.1	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.13)	1.39 ↑ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
31.7%

Rafael Jodar
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Rafael Jodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Rei Sakamoto - Rafael Jodar Predictions

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rafael Jodar will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 202. Jodar is ranked ATP: 150.

Sakamoto is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Jodar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jodar might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Giulio Zeppieri - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Rei Sakamoto - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Rei Sakamoto - Daniel Evans	2:0 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
06.01.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.11.25	Kaichi Uchida - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWLW
- Rafael Jodar
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Rafael Jodar - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Chris Rodesch - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Li Tu - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.01.26	Alexander Blockx - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Rafael Jodar	Jacquet K. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWWL?

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