Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Joao Fonseca		Raphael Collignon

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.65	2.2	Watch
	1.71	2.25
	1.69	2.17	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.65)	2.18 ↑ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
56.2%

Raphael Collignon
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Raphael Collignon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raphael Collignon than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Joao Fonseca - Raphael Collignon Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Fonseca will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Collignon will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Collignon: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonseca (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Collignon (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 35. Collignon is ranked ATP: 77.

Recent form of Fonseca has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Collignon is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Collignon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fonseca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Collignon will win today's game, with odds of 2.28.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.69%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Rio de Janeiro
19.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Joao Fonseca - Eliot Spizzirri	1:3 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Reilly Opelka - Joao Fonseca	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLL?
- Raphael Collignon
ATP Challenger
15.02.26	Raphael Collignon - Benjamin Bonzi	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Raphael Collignon - Clement Tabur	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Raphael Collignon - Luca Van Assche	2:0 ✺
12.02.26	Raphael Collignon - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Raphael Collignon - Patrick Zahraj	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWWW

Joao Fonseca - Raphael Collignon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide