Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday


	Juan Manuel Cerundolo		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.46	2.55	Watch
	1.53	2.59
	1.48	2.51	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.47	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.47)	2.55 ↑ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
63.2%

Matteo Arnaldi
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 67. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 103.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cerundolo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cerundolo could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Juan Manuel Cerundolo - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 62.97%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Federico Cina	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Daniel Altmaier - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Brandon Nakashima - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Dusan Lajovic - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Christian Garin - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLW

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