Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday


	Christian Garin		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.63	2.3	Watch
	1.65	2.37
	1.59	2.3	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.6	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.67)	2.31 ↑ (2.12)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
58.7%

Matteo Arnaldi
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	0%	30.8%

Christian Garin - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Garin: 40% – 93.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Christian Garin will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 100. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 107.

Garin has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Garin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Garin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Christian Garin	Canceled ✺
04.04.26	Christian Garin - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Christian Garin - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Christian Garin - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 ?WLLL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
15.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Christian Garin	2:1

Christian Garin - Matteo Arnaldi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide