Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Alexandre Muller

	1	2
			Watch
	1.92	1.79	Watch
	2.01	1.85
	1.93	1.83	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.93	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.01)	1.81 ↑ (1.74)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
48.2%

Alexandre Muller
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Alexandre Muller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Matteo Arnaldi - Alexandre Muller Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Muller will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 107. Muller is ranked ATP: 94.

Muller's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Muller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arnaldi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 46.4%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:3 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Altmaier	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLL?
- Alexandre Muller
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Jan Choinski - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.26	Alexandre Muller - Rafael Jodar	Muller A. Retired ✺
02.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Federico Cina - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 W?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Umag
21.07.24	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
30.05.24	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3

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