Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Dusan Lajovic		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.03	1.7	Watch
	2.12	1.81
	2.07	1.73	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.09	1.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.41)	1.74 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dusan Lajovic
45.8%

Matteo Arnaldi
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

61.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dusan Lajovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dusan Lajovic's performance.

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matteo Arnaldi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dusan Lajovic than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dusan Lajovic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Arnaldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Dusan Lajovic - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lajovic will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bublik Alexander, Lajovic Dusan - withdrawn.

Lajovic is ranked ATP: 134. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 105.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Lajovic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dusan Lajovic
ATP Challenger
15.04.26	Max Houkes - Dusan Lajovic	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Remy Bertola - Dusan Lajovic	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Dusan Lajovic - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Rafael Jodar - Dusan Lajovic	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Dusan Lajovic - Lloyd Harris	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Christian Garin - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWWL

Dusan Lajovic - Matteo Arnaldi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide