Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday


	Learner Tien		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
			Watch
	3.1	1.35	Watch
	3.33	1.38
	2.94	1.39	Watch
			Watch
	3.37	1.34	Watch
	2.64	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.57)	1.39 ↓ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
30.9%

Lorenzo Musetti
69.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Learner Tien - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tien (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Musetti (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Tien (1.79) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Tien (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Tien (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Musetti (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 52. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Tien may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Musetti might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Musetti will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 64.41%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Beijing
27.09.25	Flavio Cobolli - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Learner Tien - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
21.09.25	Valentin Royer - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Giulio Zeppieri - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Mariano Navone - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLWW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Beijing
28.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
23.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLWW

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