Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MARRAKECH (MOROCCO), CLAY - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 6 April 2023, Thursday


	Lorenzo Musetti		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.48	2.6
	1.54	2.48
	1.5	2.45
	1.5	2.75
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.45	2.75	Watch
	1.51	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.67)	2.55 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
62.8%

Hugo Gaston
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Musetti's performance.

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hugo Gaston might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Musetti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hugo Gaston could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22%	0%	78%

Lorenzo Musetti - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: Hugo Gaston will win (32 of 41 users predict this - 78.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.38% – 90.72%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Gaston is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Musetti could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Musetti will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Gaston to win the game is with odds 2.41.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Musetti won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Miami
25.03.23	Jiri Lehecka - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.23	Adrian Mannarino - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
01.03.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	0:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
17.02.23	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Marrakech
03.04.23	Hugo Gaston - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.03.23	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Andrea Vavassori - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
17.03.23	Riccardo Bonadio - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
15.03.23	Federico Gaio - Hugo Gaston	Gaio F. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Next Gen Finals
10.11.21	Lorenzo Musetti - Hugo Gaston	3:2
ATP Paris
31.10.21	Hugo Gaston - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1

Lorenzo Musetti - Hugo Gaston: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide