Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lorenzo Musetti		Taylor Harry Fritz

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.12	1.73
	2.17	1.77
	2.1	1.77	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.12	1.74	Watch
	2.1	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.98)	1.75 ↑ (1.71)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
45.2%

Taylor Harry Fritz
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Taylor Harry Fritz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Taylor Harry Fritz than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Taylor Harry Fritz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.6%	0%	59.4%

Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Musetti will win (votes: 13 - 41.9%). Fritz will win (votes: 18 - 58.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fritz: 40.7% – 75.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Fritz (votes: 7 - 58.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH -2.5 Games - Fritz (2.04) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Fritz (2.36) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Sets - Musetti (5.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 39 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Fritz (votes: 11 - 64.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 5. Fritz is ranked ATP: 9.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 3.

Musetti is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fritz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Machac	3:2 ✺
21.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Raphael Collignon	Collignon R. retired ✺
ATP Hong Kong
11.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WW?LW
- Taylor Harry Fritz
ATP Australian Open
24.01.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Taylor Harry Fritz	1:3 ✺
22.01.26	Vit Kopriva - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:3 ✺
20.01.26	Valentin Royer - Taylor Harry Fritz	1:3 ✺
ATP United Cup
10.01.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP World Tour Finals
10.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2
ATP Olympic Games
31.07.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
10.07.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	3:2
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:0
Davis Cup World Group
24.11.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
28.06.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:3

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