Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hong Kong, hard - Final

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	Eurosport 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Lorenzo Musetti		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.99	1.79	Watch
	2.00	1.81	Watch
	2	1.8
	2.03	1.82	Watch
	1.96	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.1)	1.8 ↑ (1.71)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
47.4%

Alexander Bublik
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Musetti will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Bublik will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Bublik (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 23 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 7. Bublik is ranked ATP: 11.

Musetti is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bublik may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Bublik will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Hong Kong
10.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
ATP World Tour Finals
13.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
11.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Hong Kong
10.01.26	Marcos Giron - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Juncheng Shang - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Metz
05.11.25	Vitaliy Sachko - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
ATP Paris
01.11.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Stuttgart
14.06.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	Bublik A. retired
ATP Adelaide
11.01.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	1:2
ATP London
13.06.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	Musetti L. retired

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