Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lorenzo Musetti		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.51	2.6	Watch
	1.55	2.62
	1.42	2.85	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.55	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.48)	2.62 ↑ (2.58)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
63.4%

Tomas Machac
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tomas Machac, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Musetti will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). Machac will win (votes: 8 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Sets - Musetti (1.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 38 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Machac (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Musetti will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Machac (votes: 3 - 18.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 5. Machac is ranked ATP: 24.

Musetti is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Machac is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Musetti is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Musetti won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Raphael Collignon	Collignon R. retired ✺
ATP Hong Kong
11.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 W?LWW
- Tomas Machac
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Tomas Machac - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:1 ✺
20.01.26	Grigor Dimitrov - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
16.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Tomas Machac - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Tomas Machac - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marseille
07.02.24	Tomas Machac - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

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