Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Estoril, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday


	Luca Nardi		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	2	1.72	Watch
	1.73	1.99	Watch
	1.78	2.12
	1.72	2.09	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.73	2.01	Watch
	1.73	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.3)	1.96 ↑ (1.55)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
52%

Alex Michelsen
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Nardi's performance.

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Michelsen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Nardi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	0%	26.1%

Luca Nardi - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Nardi will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Michelsen will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nardi: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Nardi (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luca Nardi will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Nardi (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 100. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 38.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Nardi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Michelsen might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Nardi - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.26%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
01.05.25	Alexey Vatutin - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Luca Nardi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
22.04.25	Hugo Gaston - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Manas Manoj Dhamne - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.25	Luca Nardi - Arthur Rinderknech	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Challenger
01.05.25	Giovanni Fonio - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
03.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
31.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWW

Upcoming Matches