Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Luca Nardi		Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.5	1.54
	2.63	1.53
	2.55	1.48	Watch
	2.58	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (3.14)	1.52 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
37.4%

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

69.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Nardi's performance.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Nardi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	0%	35.3%

Luca Nardi - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Nardi will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Mpetshi Perricard will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nardi: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luca Nardi will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 85. Mpetshi Perricard is ranked ATP: 36.

Nardi is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mpetshi Perricard has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nardi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mpetshi Perricard will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nardi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Sebastian Ofner - Luca Nardi	1:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Luca Nardi	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.25	Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WL?LL
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
ATP Beijing
26.09.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
20.09.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Filip Misolic - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLL

Luca Nardi - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide