Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday


	Luciano Darderi		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
			Watch
	1.95	1.8	Watch
	1.96	1.97
	2.12	1.75	Watch
	1.95	1.85
	1.99	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.1)	1.83 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
47.9%

Alex De Minaur
52.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.2%	0%	25.8%

Luciano Darderi - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Darderi will win (votes: 22 - 75.9%). De Minaur will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 60.3% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 2 - 66.7%). De Minaur (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Darderi is ranked ATP: 16. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 9.

Darderi is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

De Minaur's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Yannick Hanfmann	2:0 ✺
19.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
15.05.26	Casper Ruud - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Alexander Zverev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWLWW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
18.05.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Hamad Medjedovic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWLLL

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