Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Rafael Jodar		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.7	Watch
	1.51	2.85
	1.47	2.78	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.5	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.38)	2.72 ↓ (3.04)

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
64.8%

Luciano Darderi
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Rafael Jodar - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Jodar (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 19.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.01% – 96.51%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 34. Darderi is ranked ATP: 20.

Now, both players are in good form.

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jodar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Roma
12.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Nuno Borges - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
29.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
28.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLW
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Roma
12.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Alexander Zverev	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWLW

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