Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Rafael Jodar		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	1.91	1.85	Watch
	2.06	1.77
	2.09	1.88
	2.11	1.73	Watch
	2	1.8
	2.11	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.06)	1.79 ↑ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
46.6%

Alex De Minaur
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	0%	57.9%

Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Jodar will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). De Minaur will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 42. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8.

Jodar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

De Minaur has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
18.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Jaume Munar - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Hamad Medjedovic	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Alexander Blockx - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLWW

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