Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub 11
Czech-republic	Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Casper Ruud		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.33	3.35	Watch
	1.38	3.49
	1.35	3.33	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.34	3.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.34)	3.35 ↑ (3.18)

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
71.3%

Luciano Darderi
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.4%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Casper Ruud - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 14 - 53.8%). Darderi will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ruud: 34.6% – 73%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 1 - 50%). Darderi (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Ruud (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Darderi (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 25. Darderi is ranked ATP: 20.

Now, both players are in good form.

In this match, Ruud is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Roma
13.05.26	Casper Ruud - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Casper Ruud - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Casper Ruud - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.26	Casper Ruud - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWL
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Roma
13.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Alexander Zverev	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches