Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rome 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	23:45	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	16:45	Max Sport 1
Croatia	15:45	SportKlub 11
Czech Republic	15:45	Oneplay
Denmark	15:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	16:45	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	15:45	Eurosport 2
Germany	15:45	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	15:45	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	15:45	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	16:45	Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	14:45	Sky Sports Tennis


	Casper Ruud		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.33	3.35	Watch
	1.38	3.49
	1.35	3.33	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.34	3.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.34)	3.35 ↑ (3.18)

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
71.3%

Luciano Darderi
28.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.4%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Casper Ruud - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 14 - 53.8%). Darderi will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ruud: 34.6% – 73%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 1 - 50%). Darderi (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Ruud (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Darderi (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 25. Darderi is ranked ATP: 20.

Now, both players are in good form.

In this match, Ruud is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.34 are the expected chance of winning is 70.35%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Roma
13.05.26	Casper Ruud - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Casper Ruud - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Casper Ruud - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.26	Casper Ruud - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWL
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Roma
13.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Alexander Zverev	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWWL

Casper Ruud - Luciano Darderi