Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 May 2026, Monday


	Francisco Cerundolo		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.53	2.46	Watch
	1.55	2.65
	1.5	2.53	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.54	2.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.6)	2.47 ↑ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
61.5%

Alex De Minaur
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francisco Cerundolo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex De Minaur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	0%	35%

Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cerundolo will win (votes: 13 - 65%). De Minaur will win (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerundolo: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 1 - 50%). De Minaur (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 27. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8.

Cerundolo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

De Minaur is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cerundolo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cerundolo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Yannick Hanfmann	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Hamad Medjedovic	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Australian Open
17.01.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	1:3

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