Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday


	Marco Trungelliti		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.54	2.33
	1.58	2.53
	1.53	2.33	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.51	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.51)	2.41 ↑ (2.4)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
61.1%

Joel Schwaerzler
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Joel Schwaerzler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Marco Trungelliti will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marco Trungelliti will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 132. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 214.

Recent performances by Trungelliti have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Schwaerzler is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Trungelliti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Trungelliti might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trungelliti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Marco Trungelliti - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 61.38%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
04.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Florent Bax	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Garrett Johns	2:1 ✺
ATP Dubai
21.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Luca Nardi	1:2 ✺
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Billy Harris	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Hyeon Chung - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WWLLL
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
04.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Zdenek Kolar	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Mathys Erhard - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Zsombor Piros	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Matej Dodig - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Dominic Stephan Stricker	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.09.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Marco Trungelliti	0:2

Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide