Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cap Cana, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday


	Mariano Navone		Valentin Royer

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.17	1.62
	2.33	1.67
	2.15	1.64	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.13	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.11)	1.64 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
43%

Valentin Royer
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Valentin Royer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mariano Navone, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Royer than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valentin Royer, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	0%	46.2%

Mariano Navone - Valentin Royer Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Navone will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Royer will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Navone: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Navone (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Royer (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 79. Royer is ranked ATP: 60.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Royer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Navone won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mariano Navone - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.88%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Valentin Royer - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.12%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Mariano Navone - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Mariano Navone - Nick Hardt	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Mariano Navone - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
25.02.26	Mariano Navone - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Mariano Navone - Vit Kopriva	Kopriva V. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLL?
- Valentin Royer
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Valentin Royer	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Valentin Royer - Benjamin Bonzi	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Andrey Rublev - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
18.02.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Valentin Royer - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Valentin Royer - Mariano Navone	2:1

Mariano Navone - Valentin Royer: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide