Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday


	Mariano Navone		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.8	1.42	Watch
	2.93	1.45
	2.81	1.41	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.78	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (2.98)	1.44 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
34%

Luciano Darderi
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

74.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mariano Navone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luciano Darderi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Mariano Navone - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: Luciano Darderi will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luciano Darderi will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 77. Darderi is ranked ATP: 21.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Navone won 3.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Darderi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Darderi is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Navone won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.08%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Mariano Navone - Vit Kopriva	Kopriva V. retired ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Mariano Navone - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.02.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Mariano Navone	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 ?LLW?
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
15.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Belgrade 2
04.11.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	Canceled
ATP Tokyo
24.09.24	Mariano Navone - Luciano Darderi	2:0
ATP Roma
10.05.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	2:0
ATP Challenger
04.05.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	0:2
ATP Bucharest
15.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	0:2
ATP Buenos Aires
13.02.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	2:0
ATP Challenger
12.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	2:1

Mariano Navone - Luciano Darderi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide