Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday


	Marketa Vondrousova		Karolina Muchova

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	2.29	1.67
	3.89	1.26	Watch
	1.93	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2)	1.68 ↓ (1.8)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marketa Vondrousova
40.1%

Karolina Muchova
59.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marketa Vondrousova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marketa Vondrousova's form might have worsened.

Karolina Muchova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karolina Muchova's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marketa Vondrousova than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marketa Vondrousova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karolina Muchova than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Karolina Muchova, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Marketa Vondrousova - Karolina Muchova Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Vondrousova (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Karolina Muchova will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Vondrousova (votes: 1 - 25%). Muchova (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vondrousova is ranked WTA: 36. Muchova is ranked WTA: 20.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Muchova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vondrousova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marketa Vondrousova
WTA Ningbo
14.10.25	Marketa Vondrousova - Karolina Muchova	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
02.09.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova	Sabalenka A. walkover ✺
31.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Marketa Vondrousova	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Marketa Vondrousova - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	McCartney Kessler - Marketa Vondrousova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 L?WWW
- Karolina Muchova
WTA Ningbo
15.10.25	Karolina Muchova - Diana Shnaider	1:2 ✺
14.10.25	Marketa Vondrousova - Karolina Muchova	0:2 ✺
WTA Wuhan
08.10.25	Magdalena Frech - Karolina Muchova	Muchova K. retired ✺
07.10.25	Marta Kostyuk - Karolina Muchova	1:2 ✺
WTA Beijing
30.09.25	Karolina Muchova - Amanda Anisimova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LW?WL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Ningbo
14.10.25	Marketa Vondrousova - Karolina Muchova	0:2
WTA Indian Wells
14.03.23	Marketa Vondrousova - Karolina Muchova	1:2
Exhibition LiveScore Cup Tennis Women
04.06.20	Karolina Muchova - Marketa Vondrousova	Canceled
WTA Stuttgart
21.04.18	Karolina Muchova - Marketa Vondrousova	1:2
ITF Tournaments
30.07.17	Marketa Vondrousova - Karolina Muchova	2:0

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