Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santos, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday


	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida		Nicolas Alvarez Varona

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.51	2.62
	1.47	2.61	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.47	2.56	Watch
	1.42	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.68)	2.52 ↑ (2.09)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
63%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida's performance.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Alvarez Varona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Alvarez Varona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Nicolas Alvarez Varona Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Pucinelli De Almeida will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Alvarez Varona will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Alvarez Varona (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alvarez Varona (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pucinelli De Almeida is ranked ATP: 306. Alvarez Varona is ranked ATP: 314.

Pucinelli De Almeida is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alvarez Varona's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alvarez Varona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
ATP Challenger
06.05.25	Eduardo Ribeiro - Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna	1:2 ✺
02.05.25	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Lautaro Midon	2:0 ✺
01.05.25	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Conner Huertas Del Pino	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWWW
- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
06.05.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0 ✺
28.04.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Pedro Boscardin Dias	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Ryan Nijboer - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:1 ✺
01.04.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Benjamin Hassan	0:2 ✺
25.03.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Denis Yevseyev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL

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