Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday


	Mattia Bellucci		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.53	2.45	Watch
	1.44	2.7	Watch
	1.46	2.88
	1.42	2.83	Watch
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.44	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.62)	2.7 ↑ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mattia Bellucci
64.8%

Hugo Gaston
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mattia Bellucci's performance.

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hugo Gaston might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	0%	43.7%

Mattia Bellucci - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Bellucci will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Gaston will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bellucci: 32% – 80.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Gaston (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mattia Bellucci will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bellucci (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Gaston (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bellucci is ranked ATP: 63. Gaston is ranked ATP: 99.

Recent performances by Bellucci have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gaston has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bellucci may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bellucci is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bellucci won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.33%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.25	Mattia Bellucci - Cameron Norrie	0:3 ✺
02.07.25	Jiri Lehecka - Mattia Bellucci	0:3 ✺
30.06.25	Mattia Bellucci - Oliver Crawford	3:1 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
25.06.25	Billy Harris - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
23.06.25	Mattia Bellucci - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LWWLW
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Kitzbuhel
21.07.25	Hugo Gaston - Norbert Gombos	0:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
17.07.25	Hugo Gaston - Damir Dzumhur	1:2 ✺
15.07.25	Hugo Gaston - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.25	Radu Albot - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Hugo Gaston - Jakub Mensik	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.08.19	Hugo Gaston - Mattia Bellucci	2:0

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