Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Almaty 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Nikoloz Basilashvili		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2.10
	1.72	2.09	Watch
	1.73	2.16	Watch
	1.73	2.13
	1.73	2.15	Watch
	1.7	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.87)	2.11 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili
55.1%

Adrian Mannarino
44.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nikoloz Basilashvili has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nikoloz Basilashvili's performance.

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adrian Mannarino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nikoloz Basilashvili that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adrian Mannarino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	0%	35.7%

Nikoloz Basilashvili - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Basilashvili will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Mannarino will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Basilashvili: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mannarino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 128., and Mannarino is ranked ATP: 79..

Both players look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Mannarino could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Basilashvili has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 0.8:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Nikoloz Basilashvili - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Adrian Mannarino - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Almaty
21.10.26	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
19.10.26	Marin Cilic - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
18.10.26	Adam Walton - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
17.10.26	Taro Daniel - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
07.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Nikoloz Basilashvili	Basilashvili N. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWW?
- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Almaty
21.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
19.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Aleksandar Vukic	2:1 ✺
ATP Shanghai
11.10.26	Karen Khachanov - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
07.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Nikoloz Basilashvili	Basilashvili N. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
07.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Nikoloz Basilashvili	Basilashvili N. Retired
ATP Challenger
11.09.24	Adrian Mannarino - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:1
ATP Paris
01.11.21	Adrian Mannarino - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0
ATP Sofia
08.02.17	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Adrian Mannarino	2:0

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