Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday


	Nikoloz Basilashvili		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.59	2.32
	1.61	2.27	Watch
	1.63	2.31	Watch
	1.59	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.54)	2.3 ↑ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili
59%

Sebastian Baez
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nikoloz Basilashvili has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	0%	53.8%

Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Basilashvili will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Baez will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Basilashvili (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Basilashvili (votes: 1 - 10%). Baez (votes: 9 - 90%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 114. Baez is ranked ATP: 41.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Baez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Basilashvili might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Basilashvili won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Baez - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.53%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Chengdu
17.09.25	Bernard Tomic - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
16.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	James McCabe - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Marc-Andrea Huesler	0:2 ✺
18.08.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Gauthier Onclin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLLW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Sebastian Baez - Lloyd Harris	0:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
20.08.25	Sebastian Baez - Botic Van De Zandschulp	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Sebastian Baez - Gabriel Diallo	0:2 ✺
07.08.25	Sebastian Baez - David Goffin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hamburg
15.07.21	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sebastian Baez	Basilashvili N. walkover

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