Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.7
	1.51	2.74
	1.48	2.65	Watch
	1.5	2.6
	1.46	2.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.5)	2.7 ↑ (2.59)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
64.7%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	0%	21.4%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Davidovich Fokina: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 24. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 94.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Davidovich Fokina might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.26	Learner Tien - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marton Fucsovics	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 W?LWW

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