Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Jannik Sinner		Rafael Jodar

	1	2
	1.17	5	Watch
			Watch
	1.16	5.4	Watch
	1.18	5.96
	1.17	5.45	Watch
	1.14	5.5	Watch
	1.19	5.28	Watch
	1.06	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↑ (1.09)	5.8 ↓ (7.27)

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jannik Sinner
83.4%

Rafael Jodar
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

87%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jannik Sinner has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	0%	56.2%

Jannik Sinner - Rafael Jodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Jodar will win (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jodar: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +6 Games - Jodar (1.62) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Jodar (2.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Jodar is ranked ATP: 42.

Sinner is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jodar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sinner may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sinner is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jannik Sinner
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW
- Rafael Jodar
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
18.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL

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