Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/32-finals

Date: 2 July 2026, Thursday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Rafael Jodar		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.21	4.25
	1.22	4.1
	1.24	4.86
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	1.25	4.15
	2.48	1.62	Watch
	1.22	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.41)	3.59 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
70.2%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rafael Jodar will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 26. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 71.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Jodar is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jodar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Rafael Jodar - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 69.48%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Rafael Jodar - Felix Gill	3:0 ✺
ATP London
16.06.26	Ignacio Buse - Rafael Jodar	Canceled ✺
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.26	Rafael Jodar - Alexander Zverev	0:3 ✺
31.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.05.26	Alex Michelsen - Rafael Jodar	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 W?LWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:3 ✺
27.05.26	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Kokkinakis T. Retired ✺
25.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 ?LW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2

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