Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MIAMI (USA), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 24 March 2024, Sunday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.1	1.72	Watch
	2.2	1.68	Watch
	2.23	1.73
	2.27	1.71
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.06	1.77	Watch
	2.08	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.01)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
45.3%

Denis Shapovalov
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	0%	70.8%

Matteo Arnaldi - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 14 - 29.2%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 34 - 70.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 57.9% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Both players are now playing unstable.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
20.03.24	Arthur Fils - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
06.03.24	Luca Van Assche - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
28.02.24	Ben Shelton - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWL
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Denis Shapovalov - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
20.03.24	Luciano Darderi - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
08.03.24	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
26.02.24	Denis Shapovalov - Andy Murray	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
31.05.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Denis Shapovalov	1:3

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