Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Sho Shimabukuro		Sebastian Korda

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
			Watch
	3.2	1.32
	3.53	1.34
	3.99	1.25	Watch
	3.39	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (3.4)	1.31 ↓ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sho Shimabukuro
27.3%

Sebastian Korda
72.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

71.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

71.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sho Shimabukuro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Sho Shimabukuro - Sebastian Korda Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Shimabukuro will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Korda will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Shimabukuro (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shimabukuro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 273. Korda is ranked ATP: 74.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Korda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Korda is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Tomas Machac - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.09.25	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
02.09.25	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWL?
- Sebastian Korda
ATP Tokyo
24.09.25	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
20.09.25	Yibing Wu - Sebastian Korda	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Adam Walton - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Cameron Norrie - Sebastian Korda	Korda S. retired ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.25	Sebastian Korda - Marton Fucsovics	Fucsovics M. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLW??

Sho Shimabukuro - Sebastian Korda: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide