Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday


	Sebastian Ofner		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.57	2.42	Watch
	1.58	2.52
	1.49	2.49	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.53	2.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.61)	2.45 ↑ (2.23)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Ofner
61.3%

Alex Michelsen
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Ofner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Ofner that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	0%	19.4%

Sebastian Ofner - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: Sebastian Ofner will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Ofner will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ofner is ranked ATP: 82. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 42.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Ofner might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ofner won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Rinky Hijikata - Sebastian Ofner	2:1 ✺
28.04.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Sebastian Ofner - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Pol Martin Tiffon	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	Canceled ✺
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Mallorca
27.06.24	Alex Michelsen - Sebastian Ofner	1:2
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.23	Alex Michelsen - Sebastian Ofner	2:0

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