Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - Final

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Sebastian Ofner		Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.7	2	Watch
	1.81	2.1
	1.75	2.03	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.71	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.83)	2.02 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Ofner
53.7%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

56.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Ofner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Ofner that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolai Budkov Kjaer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	0%	58.8%

Sebastian Ofner - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Ofner will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Budkov Kjaer will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Budkov Kjaer: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ofner (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Budkov Kjaer (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ofner is ranked ATP: 108. Budkov Kjaer is ranked ATP: 150.

Ofner is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Budkov Kjaer is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ofner may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Ofner - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
07.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
06.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Murphy Cassone	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - George Loffhagen	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWWW
- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
ATP Challenger
07.03.26	Otto Virtanen - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Kei Nishikori	2:1 ✺
02.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Matej Dodig	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWWL

Sebastian Ofner - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide