Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.46	1.53	Watch
	2.76	1.51
	2.41	1.53	Watch
	2.64	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.41)	1.52 ↓ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
37.3%

Alex Michelsen
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

61.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mochizuki (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Mochizuki (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mochizuki (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 102. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 36.

Mochizuki is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Michelsen's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mochizuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Michelsen might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Almaty
16.10.25	Luciano Darderi - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
15.10.25	Arthur Cazaux - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.10.25	Arthur Cazaux - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	Bernard Tomic - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Kyrian Jacquet - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWLWW
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Almaty
16.10.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
15.10.25	Beibit Zhukayev - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Alex Michelsen - Ethan Quinn	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
19.09.25	Jakub Mensik - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLL

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