Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday


	Luciano Darderi		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
			Watch
	1.61	2.28	Watch
	1.67	2.31
	1.30	3.53	Watch
	1.65	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.69)	2.53 ↑ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
61.7%

Shintaro Mochizuki
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luciano Darderi's performance.

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shintaro Mochizuki might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luciano Darderi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shintaro Mochizuki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Luciano Darderi - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Darderi will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mochizuki (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Darderi is ranked ATP: 26. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 102.

In recent matches, Darderi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mochizuki is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mochizuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.67%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Luciano Darderi - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Luciano Darderi - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
26.09.25	Jenson Brooksby - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Yoshihito Nishioka - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
19.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWL
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Almaty
15.10.25	Arthur Cazaux - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.10.25	Arthur Cazaux - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	Bernard Tomic - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Kyrian Jacquet - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
07.10.25	James McCabe - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWWW

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