Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Fabian Marozsan

	1	2
	2.50	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.60	1.50	Watch
	2.56	1.58
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.50	1.54	Watch
	2.58	1.53	Watch
	2.55	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.75)	1.54 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
37.8%

Fabian Marozsan
62.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

65.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

70.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Fabian Marozsan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shintaro Mochizuki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fabian Marozsan than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fabian Marozsan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Shintaro Mochizuki - Fabian Marozsan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Marozsan (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marozsan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 114. Marozsan is ranked ATP: 55.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mochizuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Marozsan could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Montreal
01.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Dane Sweeny	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Charles Broom	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Johannus Monday	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLW
- Fabian Marozsan
ATP Umag
14.07.26	Fabian Marozsan - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Canceled ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Fabian Marozsan	3:0 ✺
29.06.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Fabian Marozsan	0:3 ✺
ATP Mallorca
26.06.26	Fabian Marozsan - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
25.06.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Fabian Marozsan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 ?LWLW

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