Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Doha - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
			Watch
	2.23	1.58	Watch
	2.34	1.64
	2.24	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.23	1.58	Watch
	2.25	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (1.9)	1.6 ↓ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
41.5%

Roberto Carballes Baena
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shintaro Mochizuki's form might have worsened.

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roberto Carballes Baena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shintaro Mochizuki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roberto Carballes Baena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mochizuki will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Carballes Baena will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mochizuki (votes: 1 - 50%). Carballes Baena (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 115. Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 175.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Mochizuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Roberto Carballes Baena - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Ghanim Al-Sulaiti	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Sebastian Ofner	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.01.26	Stefano Travaglia - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 W?LLL
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Christopher OConnell	Canceled ✺
14.02.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Lucas Miedler	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
08.02.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Mees Rottgering	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
01.02.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Andrea Vavassori	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 ?WLWL

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