Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday


	Yuta Shimizu		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2.26	1.57
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.31	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.83)	1.61 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuta Shimizu
42.2%

Sho Shimabukuro
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuta Shimizu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Yuta Shimizu's form might have worsened.

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sho Shimabukuro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuta Shimizu than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Yuta Shimizu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	0%	68.7%

Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Shimabukuro will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimabukuro: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Shimizu (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Shimabukuro (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shimizu is ranked ATP: 223. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 198.

Shimizu has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Shimabukuro is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Shimizu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Yuta Shimizu - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuta Shimizu
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Yuta Shimizu - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
21.08.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
19.08.25	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.07.25	Andres Martin - Yuta Shimizu	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Nicolas Mejia - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWLW
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Challenger
31.08.25	Oliver Crawford - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
28.08.25	Filip Peliwo - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
26.08.25	James Watt - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
19.08.25	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1
ATP Challenger
14.04.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Yuta Shimizu	0:2
12.03.24	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0
07.09.22	Sho Shimabukuro - Yuta Shimizu	2:1

Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide