Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Juan Manuel Cerundolo		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.76	1.95
	1.74	2.12
	1.80	1.91	Watch
			Watch
	1.72	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.63)	2 ↓ (2.09)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
53.3%

Sho Shimabukuro
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cerundolo will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Shimabukuro will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerundolo: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 72. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 271.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cerundolo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
ATP Tokyo
21.09.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
18.09.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Billy Harris - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
12.09.25	Daniel Evans - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Evans D. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWW?
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.09.25	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
02.09.25	Yuta Shimizu - Sho Shimabukuro	Canceled ✺
31.08.25	Oliver Crawford - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WL?WW

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