Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Beijing 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	12:20	Max Sport 1
Germany	11:20	Sky Sport Tennis
Slovakia	11:20	Voyo
United Kingdom	10:20	Sky Sports Tennis


	Sonay Kartal		Darya Kasatkina

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.08	1.75	Watch
	2.2	1.74
	2.83	1.43	Watch
	2.11	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.33)	1.68 ↑ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sonay Kartal
42.5%

Darya Kasatkina
57.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sonay Kartal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Darya Kasatkina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sonay Kartal than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Darya Kasatkina than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Sonay Kartal - Darya Kasatkina Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Kartal will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Kasatkina will win (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kartal: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sonay Kartal will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kartal is ranked WTA: 81. Kasatkina is ranked WTA: 20.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Kasatkina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kartal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sonay Kartal
WTA Beijing
25.09.25	Sonay Kartal - Alycia Parks	2:0 ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
20.09.25	Emma Navarro - Sonay Kartal	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Ena Shibahara - Sonay Kartal	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
26.08.25	Beatriz Haddad Maia - Sonay Kartal	2:1 ✺
WTA Cleveland
17.08.25	Sonay Kartal - Solana Sierra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLWLL
- Darya Kasatkina
WTA Seoul
18.09.25	Katerina Siniakova - Darya Kasatkina	2:0 ✺
WTA US Open
30.08.25	Darya Kasatkina - Naomi Osaka	1:2 ✺
28.08.25	Darya Kasatkina - Kamilla Rakhimova	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Darya Kasatkina - Elena Gabriela Ruse	2:0 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
10.08.25	Darya Kasatkina - Lucia Bronzetti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA London
09.06.25	Darya Kasatkina - Sonay Kartal	1:2

Sonay Kartal - Darya Kasatkina