Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rome 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	05:45	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	22:45	Max Sport 1
Croatia	21:45	SportKlub 11
Czech Republic	21:45	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	21:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	22:45	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:45	Eurosport 2
Germany	21:45	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	21:45	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	21:45	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	20:45	Sport TV2
Sweden	21:45	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
United Kingdom	20:45	Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Thiago Augustin Tirante		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.26	1.64	Watch
	2.32	1.72
	2.29	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.24	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.59)	1.66 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Augustin Tirante
42.2%

Daniil Medvedev
57.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.7%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Augustin Tirante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Thiago Augustin Tirante's performance.

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniil Medvedev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Augustin Tirante than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Thiago Augustin Tirante that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Medvedev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.7%	0%	42.3%

Thiago Augustin Tirante - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Tirante will win (votes: 15 - 60%). Medvedev will win (votes: 10 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tirante: 40.8% – 79.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Medvedev (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thiago Augustin Tirante will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tirante (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Medvedev (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tirante is ranked ATP: 69. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 9.

Tirante is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Medvedev has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Medvedev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Medvedev could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.33%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Augustin Tirante
ATP Roma
11.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
07.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWWLW
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Roma
11.05.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. Walkover ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 W?LWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Augustin Tirante
ATP Paris
31.10.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Zachary Svajda	✺
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Vienna
31.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	✺

Thiago Augustin Tirante - Daniil Medvedev