Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
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Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
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Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
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United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Tomas Machac		Stefanos Tsitsipas

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.56	2.4
	1.55	2.47	Watch
	1.59	2.36	Watch
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.68	2.22	Watch
	1.53	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.74)	2.36 ↑ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
59.8%

Stefanos Tsitsipas
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tomas Machac's performance.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stefanos Tsitsipas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.9%	0%	17.1%

Tomas Machac - Stefanos Tsitsipas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Tsitsipas (votes: 6 - 35.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Machac (1.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 39.5 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tomas Machac will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.37% – 95.35%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Tsitsipas (votes: 6 - 31.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Machac is ranked ATP: 24. Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 35.

Machac is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tsitsipas is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tsitsipas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Machac will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Machac will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Machac won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Grigor Dimitrov - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
16.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Tomas Machac - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Tomas Machac - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Tomas Machac - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWWW
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
13.01.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Aleksandar Vukic	0:2 ✺
ATP United Cup
06.01.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Billy Harris - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
02.01.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Vienna
26.10.23	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tomas Machac	2:1

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