Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday


	Valentin Vacherot		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.2	1.36
	3.28	1.39
	2.29	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	3.17	1.38	Watch
	3.25	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↓ (3.16)	1.4 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valentin Vacherot
31.1%

Tomas Machac
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

69.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Valentin Vacherot - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Vacherot will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Machac will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machac: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Machac will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vacherot is ranked ATP: 204. Machac is ranked ATP: 23.

Vacherot is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Machac has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vacherot may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Machac is considered a favorite.

We predict that Vacherot will win today's game, with odds of 3.09.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vacherot won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Shanghai
03.10.25	Alexander Bublik - Valentin Vacherot	1:2 ✺
01.10.25	Laslo Djere - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Valentin Vacherot - Liam Draxl	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Nishesh Basavareddy - Valentin Vacherot	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Valentin Vacherot - Robin Bertrand	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWWWL
- Tomas Machac
ATP Shanghai
03.10.25	Mattia Bellucci - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Tomas Machac - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.25	Tomas Machac - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Ugo Blanchet - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
27.08.25	Joao Fonseca - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWW

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