Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Mattia Bellucci		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.55	1.53
	2.63	1.54
	2.78	1.41	Watch
	2.51	1.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (3.22)	1.51 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mattia Bellucci
36.5%

Tomas Machac
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

70.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

72.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mattia Bellucci's performance.

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tomas Machac might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mattia Bellucci that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tomas Machac could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Mattia Bellucci - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bellucci will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Machac will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bellucci: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bellucci is ranked ATP: 64. Machac is ranked ATP: 22.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Bellucci may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Machac might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bellucci won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Adam Walton - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Mattia Bellucci - Ethan Quinn	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Mattia Bellucci - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Mattia Bellucci - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
25.08.25	Mattia Bellucci - Juncheng Shang	Shang J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWL?
- Tomas Machac
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Tomas Machac - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.25	Tomas Machac - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Ugo Blanchet - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
27.08.25	Joao Fonseca - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
24.08.25	Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.09.23	Tomas Machac - Mattia Bellucci	0:2

Mattia Bellucci - Tomas Machac: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide