Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Vilius Gaubas		Marco Trungelliti

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.45	1.48	Watch
			Watch
	2.34	1.53
	2.47	1.49	Watch
			Watch
	2.68	1.47	Watch
	2.45	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.35)	1.48 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
36.9%

Marco Trungelliti
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Marco Trungelliti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Vilius Gaubas - Marco Trungelliti Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Gaubas will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Trungelliti will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaubas: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vilius Gaubas will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 165. Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 143.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Trungelliti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Trungelliti will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gaubas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Marco Trungelliti - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.04%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
02.10.25	Marco Cecchinato - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Buvaysar Gadamauri - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Guy Den Ouden - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled ✺
28.09.25	Henrique Rocha - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WW?WW
- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
02.10.25	Henri Squire - Marco Trungelliti	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Tiago Pereira - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
25.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Guy Den Ouden	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Daniel Elahi Galan - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
18.11.23	Marco Trungelliti - Vilius Gaubas	2:0

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